Question: If Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney were on a sinking ship, who would be saved?
Answer: America.
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Cruel. Very cruel. But it may set the tone for the 2012 race. The last time a Democratic president ran for reelection was Bill Clinton in 1996. And the press was careful to portray Bob Dole as a credible opponent.
He was not. Though an often nice guy and a highly skilled legislator, he was a disaster on the stump, and Clinton crushed him in a three-way race.
The media will be a little more savvy about campaign skills this time around. Tim Pawlenty, who announced for the Republican presidential nomination on Monday, has already said, “I’m not running for entertainer in chief.”
It is not a new line. But it is an ominous one. Presidential candidates who don’t think they have to get and hold the attention of voters in a positive way — call it entertainment if you want — are probably doomed.
No matter how much Pawlenty tailors his message to attract conservative and tea party Republicans, he may lack the dynamism to beat a fired-up-and-ready-to-go Barack Obama in the general election. It is said that Pawlenty once gave a fireside chat and the fire went out.
While Pawlenty was announcing from Des Moines on Monday, CNN was running videotape of Obama drinking a Guinness in Ireland, MSNBC was running a piece on tattoo artists and even Fox cut away from Pawlenty after a short while. A few minutes later, all three cable networks gave live coverage to every minute of Obama’s rip-roaring speech from Dublin.
That’s what being an incumbent president can do for you.
Take a look at these two fields. The first is Republicans who are not running in 2012: Jeb Bush, Haley Barbour, Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Mike Huckabee, Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, John Thune and Donald Trump.
Now take a look at the Republicans who are running or getting ready to run: Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Buddy Roemer, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.
Which is the stronger field? I have not identified any of these guys by the offices they hold or have held, because if you have to ask yourself “Who is that guy?” then it shows you why the Republicans are at a disadvantage. Nobody has to ask who Obama is, and that is why he doesn’t have to spend a penny of his campaign funds on TV commercials introducing himself to the American people.
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